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Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 01:47:10 -0000

No, the cheap ARM laptops that can be made now at that price aren't good enough to run a desktop OS properly. While those that can will cost more than you're estimating.

You just said it yourself, only a few companies can afford to do large enough mass productions to even attempt it right now but those same companies will not settle for a loss or small profit margin.

Exclusive deals are not even the problem, the market is simply not at the point yet that both the performance and the pricing can produce a product that will only cost the end customer $200 and still be something they will actually want to use.

There's the whole market ecosystem you're ignoring as well. ARM needs more than just to produce another laptop product.

So you can blame politics all you want, you're exaggerating how ready ARM is at this point and not accounting for the time needed for all the things that need changing to get into place before it will be.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 23:57:42 -0000

In reply to the thread lower:
The cheap ARM Laptops can be made and sold now. The question only is if the large brands want to do that yet or not. The fact is only a few brands are big enough to afford deciding to mass manufacture a type of product. And often those brands are the same who have exclusive and secret deals right now with Intel and in those deals, it's veryclear that Intel forbids them to start making ARM Powered Laptops. It is of very high importance to Intel that nobody starts mass manufacturing ARM Laptops. That is why OLPC will lead the way and show the world that $199 ARM Laptops are a very good idea. 3x longer battery than x86, much lower complexity, much lower price, much better reliability and ample enough performance. If ARM Laptops are not yet dominant on this market it has not to do with technology it has to do with dirty politics and timing for that.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 23:57:11 -0000

replied above.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 23:39:24 -0000

LOL, sorry but no one can claim all their predictions came true, or came out exactly as predicted, and a lot of yours did not come true. So get over yourself.

People have been predicting tablets would be big since the 90's and it was still years after you claimed to make the prediction before they finally started to get successful.

Let alone more specific predictions like claiming $200 laptops when the market is still at minimum another year away from that coming true.

This is not the first time you've predicted a price and it turned out to be much higher when it finally came to market. You do this a lot, rushing the rate the market will advance far faster than it's actually moving. You have to step back and counter for your enthusiasm for more realistic estimates.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 23:28:34 -0000

All my predictions turn out to be true. I predicted the Tablet was going to be huge back in 2003, and I've been the main ARM Powered tablet blogger since 2004. I've predicted ARM Powered Google TV would make Google TV popular, ARM Powered Chrome OS makes Chrome OS popular, etc.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 22:36:03 -0000

Sorry but iSuppli does factor for volume, it's right in their disclaimer!

Doesn't change the average market value or all the factors you are choosing to ignore. Like examples like the Kindle Fire have a much lower build cost than a laptop design would.

Nor that it again doesn't change anything as the difference wouldn't be large enough like I already pointed out.

Most of what you're basing for lower cost are also lower performing and lower build quality and even then they don't reach the $200 price point after profit margins are factored for a laptop size system.

Really, enough of your predictions have fallen flat that you should start to be at least being more conservative in your estimates.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 21:43:08 -0000

iSuppli does not take into account volume of component orders. When Amazon makes a 20 million component order they get significant rebates. You really think isuppli sits in at supplier contract signing meetings?

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 21:35:57 -0000

Sorry but IHS iSuppli has a much better record of being accurate than you do.http://www.isuppli.com/Teardowns/News... again, you are simply ignoring the facts.Genesi only make a low end 10" ARM laptop that doesn't even match netbook standards. While again the Kindle Fire is basically a bare bones tablet at 7" which means anything larger will cost more.So sorry but all you're doing is being stubborn. Really, lots of the products you've given estimates on cost have pretty consistently wound up costing more. It's about time you start compensating your estimates!

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 20:26:36 -0000

Yeah nobody accuses random web estimates to be wrong. That is the standard deal you get on the blogosphere. A bunch of blogs reblog whatever they read elsewhere without actually checking. Kindle Fire cost is $150 including the $10 for Chinese factory assembly. I've checked at conferences worldwide, I hear and I see what the devices are being sold at. ARM Powered tablets are made for sub-$50 BOM today. The high-end ARM Powered Laptop BOM can be sub-$100 when mass produced.

Genesi sells theirs sub-$199 and they aren't even mass manufacturing them. Put a new high-end processor and mass manufacture it and price remains $199 today.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 20:15:59 -0000

Now you're being ridiculous, no one has accused the estimate of being wrong and it doesn't matter if it is $35 off for parts. Assembly and manufacturing fees still applies and that's before company profit and any R&D considerations. All for a product that Amazon doesn't even have to worry about profit because they make that from services. So other companies will have to price higher to make it worth it to them.

Never mind it's still a minimalistic 7" tablet and a larger laptop will cost more anyway.

So you're estimates are too low and we're not going to see a good $200 ARM laptop until maybe next year.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:45:51 -0000

Those Kindle Fire BOM estimations are wrong. The Kindle Fire costs an average of less than $150 to make for Amazon, all components included and assembly, especially at the volume they are making them at and considering they can expect component prices to go further down a few months later as they are still manufacturing it. The Kindle Fire PCB is below $50, likely around $40, maybe even $30 considering it's using the cheaper OMAP4430. The capacitive touch panel costs more than a keyboard and mousepad. That is why the ARM Powered Laptop BOM is lower than a Tablet.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:29:39 -0000

USB and SD cards is no excuse for the point of CPU performance. Old N270 ATOM systems were hardly speedy with only a single core and used either equally slow 1st/2nd gen Flash_Con SSDs or HDDs, along with RAM of either 512MB or 1GB with default configurations.

While also it doesn't change the newer ATOMs are dual core, offer higher clock speeds, and now up to 4GB of RAM.

Besides, I already pointed out that ARM typically gets less capable SSDs and they'll need more high end SSDs for a system that'll run a desktop OS. Along with more storage capacity because not only does the OS need more space but so do the programs and people tend to store more of their data with a desktop OS than they do with mobile systems.

While Genesi may not have volume but companies like Amazon do and if you look at the parts cost for the Kindle Fire just the PCB costs over $65, well above you're $30 claim, and that's for a small 7" system, the screen also costing over $70, with no keyboard and still lacking ports and many of the features you'd expect with a laptop design.

All told the parts alone cost the Kindle Fire about $185, add cost of manufacturing/assembly and it costs Amazon just over $201 per Kindle Fire sold and they're selling it at $199 at a loss with all profits coming from the services they provide, but any other company needs to make profit with the hardware sale and that means even higher pricing, which again I'll emphasize will be more for a full laptop size system.

While you're also underestimating how much ARM still has to cover before being considered properly capable of running desktop OS. Many are just leveraging good graphics and hardware acceleration but they need good CPU performance and that'll take more than mimics like calling exta media cores the same thing as CPU cores.

So sorry but you're way off on the hardware cost side of your estimates and when we'll see systems as cheap as you're thinking.

I do agree that tablets will start becoming convertibles in 2012 though, at least before the end of the year, and while Chrome is still a unknown but Android should spread with the improvements they're making.

Re: NDS Snowflake Set-top-box user interface demo

Marc Guillot Puig — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:51:34 -0000

Nice, ¿ Prices ?, ¿ they will have Ubuntu drivers ?, ...

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 05:22:48 -0000

I don't know how you got those benchmark numbers, as explained by David Mandala in video, the Pandaboards and Beagleboards use USB interfaces and SD cards for memory which does not provide as optimal performance on the memory bandwidth as a final system with memory fully integrated.

Genesi sells a few hundred of their Efika Laptops, it's a small startup company based in San Antonio. Genesi is not Acer, it's not Asus, it's not Toshiba, Dell, Sony, Samsung etc. To bring down price you need volume.

When I say $199 OMAP4 Chromebooks now, I'm talking about 5-10 million units mass manufactured now.

Also when I talk OMAP4 Chromebook, I'm more likely expecting it to be OMAP4470 at 1.8Ghz and with 2GB of DDR3 memory.

GPU does matter hugely for responsiveness in apps such as the Chrome browser. More and more is Google able to hook into full hardware acceleration for the web browser, and that means the faster GPU does provide a much faster much more responsive performance. That is why AMD E-450 based Laptops feel 2x to 3x faster than Intel Atom powered Netbooks. In the same way, the OMAP4470 1.8Ghz with SGX544 (clocked much higher than Apple A5) that is ample enough for full Desktop/Laptop computing now. Running Chrome OS and Ubuntu as dual-boot, 8GB built-in fast flash memory is more than enough. The ARM Laptops come with extendable memory through dual-SDXC slots and 2.5" Hard drive slots optional also.

Waiting for OMAP5 is not needed. ARM Laptops can be launched right now.

There isn't only OMAP4470 that is appropriate. Tegra3, Exynos 4212 1.5Ghz (Samsung might have a 1.8Ghz Dual-core also), Qualcomm APQ8960 Krait 1.5-1.8Ghz, i.MX6Quad, Mavell Armada 628 (tri-core), all those and more are ready now to power full Laptop computing and are ready to crush and destroy x86 computing forever. Rockchip and Telechips also are coming with ARM Cortex-A9 within the next 3 months that are for sure powerful enough for Laptops also. AmLogic and NEC/Renesas also probably have new ARM Cortex-A9 Dual-cores about to be ready.

And yes, I expect $199 for the base ARM Powered Laptop with normal LCD perhaps 10.1" (20hr battery), $249 10.1" Pixel Qi (40hr battery), $299 13.3" Pixel Qi (40hr battery). $299 for 10.1" touch screen versions also thus Tablet convertible.

By the way also, starting 2012, most tablets will become Laptop convertibles, basically you click and launch a full Chrome browser in Android and you get a Chromebook experience when the Laptop Dock is used. Basic Laptop Docks to work with any Tablets can start at $19.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 04:35:35 -0000

Sorry but ARM is still catching up with Intel on CPU performance. Besides which a OMAP 4 is still last year technology, it's the next gen OMAP 5 that finally rivals Intel ATOM.

Take a OMAP 4 Panda Board ES vs a old N270 single core ATOM...

Apache Benchmark... 785.91 (PB) vs 1742.64 (ATOM)
7-Zip Compression... 550 (PB) vs 931 (ATOM)
Post Mark... 2 (PB) vs 15 (ATOM)
NAS Parallel Benchmark... 256.22 (PB) vs 422.95 (ATOM)
NAS Parallel Benchmark... 35.01 (PB) vs 57.87 (ATOM)

NAS Parallel Benchmark... 5.81 (PB) vs 7.97 (ATOM)
RAM Speed SMT... 1212.54 (PB) vs 1668.09 (ATOM)
SciMark... 61.10 (PB) vs 134.21 (ATOM)
TSCP... 43805 (PB) vs 125307 (ATOM)

Really, aside from graphics because the Intel ATOM GMA sucks there isn't much besides power efficiency and lower cost going for the OMAP 4, but like the difference between a ATOM and a AMD Fusion, just having better graphics isn't enough and you need more than to be close in CPU performance to start claiming a edge.

Remember OMAP 4 is still Cortex A9 and much the major improvements won't come out until OMAP 5 with Cortex A15, along with the boost going 28nm will bring.

While you're also forgetting ATOM's are starting to improve as well, with single cores being phased out in favor of dual cores and minimal clocks speeds being raised. So while still nowhere near even a Core2Duo or Core i3, they are still noticeably better than the old N270 used in the above comparison.

Chromebook's baseline is dual core 1.5GHz N550 ATOM and even that is considered not good enough since they started moving to Celeron. So don't kid yourself, nothing but the top of the line offerings will do and it'll be awhile before they come down in price.

While again a $30 USB dongle system is not about the same as a ARM laptop system, as already pointed out a USB dongle size system lacks many things that are usually common to a laptop design.

Basically a $200 ARM laptop today is the Genesi Efika MX Smartbook and it's a pretty basic 10" that doesn't even compare to a Intel ATOM netbook. While again, I already pointed out that Chromebooks are usually 11.6-12.1" systems and larger size means even higher pricing.

So again, don't confuse enthusiasm with what's actually possible right now. It's going to take time before they can make a $200 ARM laptop that either doesn't suck for running a desktop OS or is the size of a UMPC to keep parts cost down enough.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 01:33:58 -0000

OMAP4 is better than Intel Atom. Thus OMAP4 Chromebooks can perform better than Intel Atom Chromebooks now. The key to make Chrome OS popular is to lower the price to $199. Problem solved. The OMAP4 SoC on that $30 BOM HDMI-stick is pretty much the same as can be used in a laptop configuration, expansion of SoC, use of OMAP4470, increase of RAM to perhaps 2GB, all ports and connectors, keyboard, mousepad, screen is factored in when I saw BOM for a high-end ARM Powered Laptop today can be $100. Thus retail price today $199 is easy. And that pretty much can even have a screen size like on an Ultrabook. Thus the ARM Powered Ultrabook can be $199 now. Not next year, today now. On top of that, Google gives manufacturers upwards $20 per year for 2 years if the ARM Chromebooks are actively using Google services by default. So the upwards $40 in extra Google income selling ARM Chromebooks makes it even more of a perfect business to get onto.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 01:21:13 -0000

Sorry, but again that $30 is not including a full system as you would with a laptop and I'm not talking about the other parts of the laptop but the core system itself.

A USB dongle device does not need to support multiple ports, it doesn't need to support multiple video outs, it doesn't need to support many peripherals, it doesn't need a advance power control circuit, it doesn't need a battery, it doesn't need sensors, no GPS, no 3G/4G, etc.

All of which means a much more simple system that of course will cost less.

So the core system alone is going to cost more, then you start adding the cost for the other laptop parts. Like at least $40 for the LCD, more if they go IPS or Pixel Qi. Even with high production the cost don't go down that much, at least not for all the parts.

While a hard drive right now is not as cheap as they were a year ago thanks to the supply shortages, which the market won't recover from for at least several more months.

32GB is becoming the the minimum for many systems, even Smart Phones (aside from lower end models) are getting more than just 8GB now. So don't try to disregard that as well for system costs.

Never mind that SSD performance is more important for a desktop OS than a mobile OS. So they can't be using the cheap low performance SSDs they typically use in most ARM devices.

Overall specifications of laptop also have to be held to higher standards, since they are self contained complete systems and have to deal with EM interference and generation, and minimal build quality standards. All before additional costs for making them look as good as possible to maximize consumer appeal. Remember lousy build quality lowers the appeal of even the cheapest systems.

Never mind, to properly run a desktop OS you need much more performance than a OMAP 4 can provide. Sure you could run a desktop OS on it but it won't be speedy and like people complaining about screen refresh lag, lack of speed of a OS can be annoyingly noticeable.

Even with Chrome, a Cloud based OS, they're pushing faster than ATOM processors because performance matters, especially if they have to rely on CPU performance and can't take advantage of GPU acceleration. Then there's linux, which has distros ranging from pretty basic to some being as nearly bloated and as hard to run as Windows.

So again, they'll eventually get there but you're over a year too early to be expecting them yet. You gotta give these next gen systems time to get lower in cost and less demand for profit for brand new systems before the prices start to get that low.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:05:06 -0000

The $30 BOM HDMI-Stick uses high end ARM performance, it's OMAP4, pretty much the highest ARM performance of the moment. All the other components to build a Laptop cost less than $70 of additional BOM. That is, considering also that someone like Toshiba, Acer, Asus, Sony, Samsung, Dell should mass manufacture 1 million of those right now.

No need for large SSD storage, we're talking 8GB Flash storage for Chrome OS or something similar. The ARM Laptop can have 2 full sized SDXC ports for additional flash storage and can even have some kind of port underneath so a full 2.5" hard drive or SSD can be added as an option, thus adding up to 2TB if needed.

Chrome OS on ARM is ready now. Chrome OS on OMAP4 is ready. And as said in this video Ubuntu on OMAP4 is ready now. The ARM Powered OMAP4460 or OMAP4470 laptops can be released now. Many of the other high end ARM Processors are ready or can relatively easily get ready for this now also. Basically there are several new high end ARM Processors with memory bandwidth much higher than Tegra2, thus full Laptop performance and $199 retail price can be done now.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

CyberGusa — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 19:41:43 -0000

You're making a disingenuous comparison between a minimalistic device and what a laptop would cost. Especially when the comparison is with what's little more than a USB dongle.

A USB dongle solution doesn't even support all ports or provide support for both the LCD and a external monitor like most laptops do. Let alone the design requirements for a mobile/portable device versus a stationary one are significantly different.

Really, look at that OMAP USB dongle system and notice it doesn't have multiple ports, it doesn't have to support both a internal LCD screen and a external video port, it doesn't have to have it's own battery and power control systems that also has to handle charging of the battery, it doesn't have sensors, it doesn't have pretty much anything.

So of course a basic system is going to be pretty cheap but a laptop will cost multiple times more!

Never mind running a Desktop OS not only requires high end ARM performance, eliminating most lower end solutions options, but also requires more drive storage space, which also raises the cost of the systems with larger SSDs. Capacities like 32GB are quickly becoming the minimum, along with 1GB to 2GB of RAM also increasing costs.

$200 ARM laptops capable of running a desktop OS will eventually hit the market but we're likely still at least over a year away from that happening.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Charbax — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 05:37:35 -0000

You can see in this video of the Always Innovating OMAP4 HDMI-Stick http://armdevices.net/2012/01/... the BOM is $30. Add to that a screen, a battery, a keyboard, few ports and connectors, that's it! It can be manufactured for less than $100 and sold for $199 with profit. The ARM Powered Laptop only makes sense, yup with all the memory bandwidth and RAM DDR3 configured for full speed productivity.

Genesi must release their i.MX53 and i.MX6 Laptops, Toshiba should release an AC-200 with Tegra3, etc.

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

sola — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 05:15:09 -0000

Sorry Charbax, but you are dreaming.

It would be nice to have those features at those price points but it doesn't seem to be happening. Not yet, anyways.

1) The Efica MX is $199 but the hw is unacceptably weak for a usable Ubuntu desktop. (Cortex A8 with 512MB of RAM)

2) 1.5Ghz Tegra3, Snapdragon S4 or OMAP5 based machines with 2GB of RAM would be OK for a full-featured Ubuntu desktop but they are nowhere to be seen or cost you $600+. I would settle for a Transformer Prime if it had 2GB of DDR3 RAM but it currently ship with 1GB DDR2. The Lenovo K2 might be OK but that may not ship with a keyboard.

All in all, I like your vision but nobody seems to be coming out with those smartbooks, especially not for $200.

Re: Google buys Hardware company for $12.5 Billion

Charbax — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 01:06:23 -0000

You don't have Samsung numbers, the Koreans do not give you their Smartphone sales numbers. Good analysts have measured Samsung has overtaken Apple in smartphone shipments more than 6 months ago. Samsung Bada shipments are tiny compared to their Android effort, Android is more than 95% of Samsung smartphone sales worldwide. Samsung only keeps Bada alive as a hobby, similar to Apple's crappy TV effort.

And you obviously don't know how to calculate. If all 250 million Android phones were in use $40/phone/year is $10 Billion per year. But since not all 250 Million Android devices are still or yet in full use, the number is closer to $5 Billion per year. That is, the revenue from Android for Google every year. That does not include the increase in revenue Google gets from iOS, Windows Phone, BB, etc, Google makes money on all platforms as all are forced to improve to compete with the awesome Android phones on the market. Yet obviously Google makes most revenue per phone when the phone is Android, simply cause more Google services are better integrated with Android unlike that crappy Wolphram piece of shit example on Apple Siri.

Re: Google buys Hardware company for $12.5 Billion

Steven Noyes — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 01:03:09 -0000

WOW. I am really starting to think you believe all the lies you write. Pretty much you are 100% wrong on every account but lets take one:

"Samsung alone sells more Android phones than Apple sells iPhones. "

Given Samsung shipped, at most, 32 million smartphones last quarter and that included >5 million Bada and 1 million WP7 handsets, that allows for about 26 million Android handsets TOPS. I know a few estimates have it at 35 million but ASP would only support that if Bada shipments were in the >8-9 million units.

Apple sold >37 million iPhones.

Funny thing is, I can do this point by point and show where you are outright lying through your fingers and you still would jump up and down like a child saying it can't be true, it can't be true, it can't be true.

The best part it, you actually believe Google pulls in a total of $2.7 trillion USD (you read right trillion) per year in revenue. That is what Google would have to be making to support the rest of their balance sheet add up if they made $40/Android handset/year.

Re: Google buys Hardware company for $12.5 Billion

Steven Noyes — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:58:04 -0000

Re: Status of Ubuntu for ARM Laptops and Servers

Sprewell — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 15:59:59 -0000

If you're willing to settle for a single core Cortex A8, you can get it now, as Genesi has been selling it for a while. When I was looking for an ARM-powered laptop a little while back, this was the only real option I found, though it only has 512 MB of RAM like the AC100. Maybe if they refresh it, it will have A9 and more RAM one of these days.